Pa Epulo 29, 2025, mtengo wapakati wa aluminiyumu wa A00 pamsika wamalo a Mtsinje wa Yangtze udanenedwa pa 20020 yuan/tani, ndikuwonjezeka tsiku lililonse kwa yuan 70; Mgwirizano waukulu wa Shanghai Aluminium, 2506, unatsekedwa pa 19930 yuan/tani. Ngakhale idasinthasintha pang'ono mu gawo lausiku, idasungabe gawo lothandizira la 19900 yuan masana. Kumbuyo kwazomwe zikuchitikazi ndikumveka bwino pakati pa zinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe zikugwera pansi komanso kuchulukira kwamasewera a mfundo:
Kufufuza kwa aluminiyamu ya LME kwatsikira ku matani 417575, ndi masiku osakwana sabata imodzi, ndipo mtengo wamagetsi wamagetsi ku Ulaya (pomwe mitengo ya gasi yachilengedwe ikubwereranso ku 35 euro / megawati ola) ikulepheretsa kuyambiranso kupanga.
Zolemba zamagulu a Shanghai Aluminium zidatsika ndi 6.23% mpaka matani 178597 pa sabata. Chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwa zida zapanyumba ndi maoda agalimoto kudera lakumwera, mtengo wamalowo udapitilira 200 yuan/ton, ndipo nyumba yosungiramo zinthu yaku Foshan idakhala pamzere kwa masiku opitilira atatu kuti akatenge katunduyo.
Ⅰ. Kuganiza Kuyendetsa: Kufuna Kupirira vs. Kugwa kwa Mtengo
1. Kufunika kwa mphamvu zatsopano kukutsogola, ndipo magawo azikhalidwe akuchira pang'onopang'ono
Zotsatira zomaliza za kuthamangira kukhazikitsa photovoltaics: Mu April, kupanga ma modules a photovoltaic kunawonjezeka ndi 17% mwezi pamwezi, ndipo kufunikira kwa mafelemu a aluminiyamu kunakwera ndi 22% pachaka. Komabe, pamene ndondomeko ikuyandikira mu Meyi, makampani ena adabweza maoda pasadakhale.
Kuthamangitsidwa kwamagetsi opepuka pagalimoto: Kuchuluka kwa aluminiyumu yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito m'magalimoto atsopano amagetsi pagalimoto iliyonse yapitilira ma kilogalamu 350, ndikuyendetsa mabizinesi a aluminiyamu, mizere ndi zojambulazo kukwera mpaka 82%. Komabe, mu Epulo, kuchuluka kwa malonda agalimoto kudatsika mpaka 12%, ndipo kuchulukitsa kwa malonda mu ndondomekoyi kudachepa.
Pansi pa madongosolo a gridi yamagetsi: Gulu lachiwiri la State Grid lamagetsi okwera kwambiri opangira zida za aluminiyamu ndi matani 143000, ndipo mabizinesi opangira zingwe za aluminiyamu akugwira ntchito mokwanira, kuthandizira kupanga mitengo ya aluminiyamu kuti ikhale yokwera zaka zisanu.
2. Pa mbali ya mtengo, pali zinthu ziwiri: ayezi ndi moto
Kupsyinjika kwa aluminiyamu owonjezera kumaonekera: kuyambiranso kwa kupanga m'migodi ya Shanxi kwapangitsa mtengo wa bauxite kubwerera ku $ 80 / tani, mtengo wa alumina watsika pansi pa 2900 yuan / tani, mtengo wa aluminiyumu wa electrolytic watsikira ku 16500 yuan / tani, ndipo phindu la malonda lawonjezeka kufika pa yuan 3700.
Green zotayidwa umafunika umafunika: Yunnan hydropower zotayidwa tani tani mtengo ndi 2000 yuan m'munsi kuposa mphamvu matenthedwe, ndi phindu lalikulu mabizinesi monga Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. kuposa avareji makampani ndi 5 peresenti mfundo, imathandizira chilolezo cha mphamvu matenthedwe mphamvu kupanga.
Ⅱ. Masewera a Macro: Ndondomeko ya 'lupanga lakuthwa konsekonse' imasokoneza zomwe msika ukuyembekezera
1. Ndondomeko zokhazikika zakukula kwapakhomo zimalimbana ndi zoopsa zakunja
Kumanga kwapakati pa ntchito za zomangamanga: Bungwe la National Development and Reform Commission likukonzekera kupereka mndandanda wa ntchito "zapawiri" kwa chaka chonse kumapeto kwa June, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kuyendetsa chiwonjezeko cha matani 500000 pakugwiritsa ntchito aluminiyamu.
Zoyembekeza za ndondomeko yandalama yotayirira: Banki yayikulu yalengeza "kuchepetsa kwanthawi yake kwa chiwongola dzanja ndi chiwongola dzanja", ndipo kuyembekezera kutsika kwachuma kwalimbikitsa kuyenda kwa ndalama mumsika wazinthu.
2. Overseas' black swan 'kuwopseza kukwera
Ndondomeko zobwerezabwereza za US tariff: kuyika 70% msonkhozopangidwa ndi aluminiyamukuchokera ku China kuletsa kutumiza kunja kwachindunji, kukhudza mosalunjika maunyolo amakampani monga zida zapakhomo ndi zida zamagalimoto. Ziwerengero zokhazikika zikuwonetsa kuti kuwonekera kwa aluminiyumu ku US ndi 2.3%.
Kufuna kofooka ku Ulaya: Chiwerengero cha magalimoto atsopano olembetsa ku EU m'gawo loyamba chinatsika ndi 1.9% chaka ndi chaka, ndipo kuwonjezeka kwa kupanga Trimet ku Germany kunapondereza malo obwezeretsanso a London aluminiyamu. Mtengo wosinthira ku Shanghai London unakwera kufika pa 8.3, ndipo kutayika kwa kunja kudaposa 1000 yuan/ton.
Ⅲ. Nkhondo yandalama: kusiyana kwakukulu kumakulirakulira, kusinthasintha kwamagulu kumathamanga
Nkhondo yanthawi yayitali pamsika wam'tsogolo: Mgwirizano waukulu wa Shanghai Aluminium unatsika ndi maere 10393 patsiku, maudindo a Yong'an Futures adatsika ndi maere a 12000, malo achidule a Guotai Jun'an adakula ndi maere a 1800, ndipo malingaliro odana ndi chiwopsezo chandalama adakwera.
Msika wogulitsa uli ndi kusiyana koonekeratu: gawo la lingaliro la aluminiyamu linakwera ndi 1.05% tsiku limodzi, koma China Aluminium Industry idagwa ndi 0.93%, pamene Nanshan Aluminium Industry idakwera ndi 5,76% motsutsana ndi zomwe zikuchitika, ndi ndalama zomwe zimayikidwa mu aluminiyamu ya hydropower ndi atsogoleri apamwamba opangira.
Ⅳ. Chiyembekezo cham'tsogolo: Msika wa Pulse pansi pamlingo wovuta
Nthawi yochepa (miyezi 1-2)
Kusasunthika kwakukulu kwamitengo: Mothandizidwa ndi kuwerengera kochepa komanso kufunikira kobwezeretsanso tchuthi, Shanghai Aluminium ikhoza kuyesa kuchuluka kwa chiwongoladzanja cha 20300 yuan, koma kusamala kuyenera kuchitidwa motsutsana ndi kubweza kwa dola yaku US chifukwa chakuchedwa kwa chiwongola dzanja cha Federal Reserve.
Chenjezo Lachiwopsezo: Kusintha kwadzidzidzi kwa malamulo otumiza kunja kwa bauxite ku Indonesia komanso vuto lobweretsa zinthu lomwe lidabwera chifukwa cha ziletso za aluminiyamu ku Russia zitha kuyambitsa chiwopsezo cha kukakamizidwa kosungirako katundu.
Nthawi yapakatikati mpaka yayitali (theka lachiwiri la 2025)
Kukhazikika kwamphamvu yolimba: Kuchulukitsa kwapadziko lonse lapansi kwa aluminiyamu ya electrolytic ndi yochepera matani 1 miliyoni pachaka, ndipo kufunikira kwa mphamvu zatsopano kukukulirakulira ndi matani 800000 pachaka, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kutseka kusiyana.
Kukonzanso kwamtengo wamakampani: Kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa aluminiyamu yobwezerezedwanso kwadutsa 85%, ndipo ukadaulo wophatikizika wa kufa-casting wapangitsa kuti phindu lalikulu lifike pa 20%. Mabizinesi okhala ndi zotchinga zaukadaulo azitsogolera gawo lotsatira la kukula.
[Zomwe zili m'nkhaniyi zachokera pa intaneti, ndipo malingaliro ake ndi ongowunikira okha osati kugwiritsidwa ntchito ngati maziko a ndalama]
Nthawi yotumiza: May-06-2025