Mitambo Yapawiri ya Ice ndi Moto: Nkhondo Yopambana Pansi pa Kusiyanitsa Kwamapangidwe a Msika wa Aluminium

Ⅰ. Mapeto opanga: "Kukula kodabwitsa" kwa aluminiyamu ndi electrolytic aluminium

1. Alumina: Vuto la Akaidi la Kukula Kwakukulu ndi Kusungirako Zapamwamba

Malinga ndi deta kuchokera ku National Bureau of Statistics, China kupanga aluminiyamu anafika matani 7.475 miliyoni mu March 2025 (+ 10,3% pachaka-pachaka), ndi zochulukirachulukira matani 22.596 miliyoni kotala loyamba (+ 12.0% chaka ndi chaka). Ngakhale kukula kosalekeza kwa kupanga, msika wagwera mumkhalidwe woyipa wa "kuchulukitsa kupanga popanda kuchulukitsa ndalama"

Kuchulukitsa kumakulirakulira:Domestic alumina social inventory wadutsa matani 3.958 miliyoni, kuphatikizidwa ndi kukakamizidwa kuchokera ku kutsegulidwa kwa zenera lolowera kunja (mtengo wa FOB waku Australia watsika mpaka $373 / tani), ndipo mitengo yamalo yatsika pansi pamtengo wandalama m'chigawo cha Shanxi (3250 yuan/tani).

Kupanikizika kwamitengo kuti muchepetse kupanga:Zomera za aluminiyamu ku Henan, Guizhou ndi madera ena zayamba kukonza chifukwa cha kutayika kwa ndalama, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti mwezi wa 2.85% pamwezi uchepe pakugwiritsa ntchito mpaka matani 88.6 miliyoni pachaka mu Marichi. Komabe, kutulutsidwa kwa matani 1 miliyoni a mphamvu zatsopano zopangira ku Indonesia kwawonjezera kuchuluka kwa ntchito padziko lonse lapansi.

2. Electrolytic aluminiyamu: "yolimba bwino" pansi pa denga la mphamvu yopangira

Kupanga kwa aluminiyamu ya electrolytic mu Marichi kunali matani 3.746 miliyoni (+ 4.4% chaka ndi chaka), ndipo kuchulukirachulukira m'gawo loyamba kunali matani miliyoni 11.066 (+ 3.2% pachaka). Ngakhale kuyambiranso kupanga kudera lakumwera chakumadzulo (ndi Yunnan Hongtai kukhalabe ndi mphamvu zokwanira zopanga matani 1.5 miliyoni), kukhazikika kwazinthu kumakakamizidwa ndi mfundo.

Kusintha kwamphamvu kumalamulira:Sichuan, Guangxi ndi zigawo zina zimayambiranso kupanga makamaka kudzera m'malo mwa mphamvu, pomwe Baotou Aluminium yomwe idapangidwa kale imachotsedwa kuti ithetse chiwonjezeko, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti kukula kwaukonde kusakhale kochepa.

Kuchepa kwa zinthu kumathandizira:Kumayambiriro kwa mwezi wa April, chiwerengero cha aluminiyamu cha electrolytic chinatsika mpaka matani a 744000 (chaka-chaka -138000 matani), ndi kufufuza kwa LME kunabwereranso ku matani 459000, kuchirikiza kulimba kwa mitengo ya aluminiyamu.

Ⅱ. Kumbali yofunikira: "kung'ambika" pakati pa nyimbo zachikhalidwe ndi zomwe zikubwera
1. Munda Wachikhalidwe: Kupha kawiri za zomangamanga ndi kutumiza kunja

Mndandanda wa malo ogulitsa nyumba ukupitirira kuchepa:kuyambira January mpaka March, malonda m'dera index wa nyumba zamalonda anali mu "ozizira" osiyanasiyana, yomanga mbiri mlingo yomanga anali 61% yokha, ndi mlingo wa kukula kwa zotayidwa kupanga (1.3%) anali kwambiri m'munsi kuposa mlingo kukula kwa electrolytic zotayidwa.

Kutumiza kunja kumakumana ndi vuto la tariff:Misonkho ya aluminiyamu yaku US ku China yakwera kuchoka pa 104% kufika pa 145%, ndi zotumiza kunja kwa aluminiyamu mu Januwale ndi February kutsika ndi 4.5% pachaka. Makampani akutembenukira kumalonda aku Southeast Asia ngati malo otetezeka.

2. Mphamvu zatsopano ndi kupanga kwapamwamba: kufunikira kwa injini zatsopano

Kuphulika kwa kukula kwazitsulo zotayidwa:Mu March, kupanga aloyi zotayidwa anafika matani 1.655 miliyoni (chaka pa-chaka + 16,2%), motsogozedwa ndi opepuka magalimoto mphamvu zatsopano (inapita patsogolo magnesium zitsulo zotayidwa m'malo) ndi kufunika kwa mafelemu photovoltaic (kupindula ndi mfundo zatsopano zoweta mtengo magetsi).
Kupititsa patsogolo kumasulira kwa zida za aluminiyamu zapamwamba: Kuyesa kwa Dongqing Special Materials kunatulutsa opanda waya wambiri wowotcherera wa magnesium, maoda a bulaketi a aluminiyamu a Longi Corporation adakwera ndi 35% chaka chilichonse, ndipo kulowetsa m'malo mwaogwiritsa ntchito kumapeto kwachangu.

Ⅲ.Mtengo ndi Mtengo: Kugwa kwa Alumina vs. Phindu Kukula kwa Electrolytic Aluminium

1. Kumanganso kopindika kwa mtengo

Aluminium oxide yagwera mu 'death spiral':mitengo ya m'nyumba bauxite anamasuka (kutsika 5% mwezi pamwezi m'chigawo Jin Yu), ndalama zothandizira zinthu monga caustic koloko ndi malasha zatsika, ndi makampani kulemedwa mtengo watsikira ku 3158 yuan/tani, koma mitengo wagwa ngakhale mofulumira (Shanxi malo mitengo wagwa pansi 3000 yuan/tani).
Kukula kwa malire a phindu la aluminiyamu ya electrolytic:Mtengo wa aluminiyamu watsika mpaka 40% (55% mu 2024), phindu lolemera lamakampani opanga ma electrolytic aluminiyamu lafika pa 3700 yuan/tani, ndipo phindu lalikulu la mabizinesi amtundu wa Yunnan hydropower (monga Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.) ladutsa 25%.

2. Kuwonjezeka kwa kusiyana kwamitengo

Alumina oscillation amachokera ku:Zotsatira za magwero kunja otsika mtengo (Indonesia anawonjezera 6.5 miliyoni matani kupanga mphamvu kuti padera) ndi kumasulidwa kwa zoweta mphamvu zatsopano kupanga (Guangxi a 2 miliyoni tani polojekiti kufika kupanga zonse mu April) kupondereza rebound danga, ndi kuyembekezera ntchito osiyanasiyana kotala lachiwiri ndi 2800-3200 yuan/tani.

Kukhazikika kwakukulu kwa aluminiyumu ya electrolytic:Mitengo ya aluminiyamu ya LME imakhalabe yokhazikika pamtengo wa 2450-2550 US dollars / tani, ndipo mgwirizano waukulu wa aluminiyamu wa Shanghai umathandizidwa ndi zowerengera zochepa komanso zoyembekeza za ndondomeko (zothandizira "zokonzanso zipangizo" zapakhomo), ndi cholinga chachifupi cha 20500 yuan / tani.

Ⅳ. Malonda Padziko Lonse ndi Ndondomeko: Mtengo wa 'Grey Rhino' ndi Kusintha kwa Green
1. Unyolo wamasewera aku China US tariff

Kukonzanso kwa chain yamakampani opanga magalimoto:United States yakhazikitsa msonkho wa 25% pamagalimoto obwera kunja, kukakamiza fakitale ya Tesla ku Mexico kuti ichedwetse kupanga. Chigawo cha zogulitsa za aluminiyamu yaku China ku United States chatsika mpaka 5% (makampani monga Wan'an Technology akufulumizitsa kupita kumsika waku Europe).

Njira Yosamutsira Rusal:Pamene nthawi yomasulidwa ku EU ku Rusal ikuyandikira, Rusal ikufulumizitsa kusamutsidwa kwawo kumalo osungiramo katundu aku Asia (kutumiza matani 154000 a alumina ku Russia mu Marichi), ndipo kuchuluka kwa LME kwa Rusal kwakwera mpaka 82%.

2. Kusalowerera ndale kwa kaboni kumayendetsa kukweza kwa mafakitale

Pulogalamu yoyeserera yotsimikizira za carbon footprint yakhazikitsidwa:Baise electrolytic aluminiyamu kulemba carbon certification wakhazikitsidwa, ndipo chandamale kuti zobwezerezedwanso mphamvu zotayidwa zotayidwa mphamvu yawonjezeka mpaka matani 6 miliyoni pachaka (ndi Alcoa low-carbon aluminiyamu umafunika kufika 15%).
Mtengo wamagetsi:Mitengo ya gasi ya ku Ulaya yakweranso kufika pa 35 euro / megawati ola, ndipo kuyambiranso kupanga ku fakitale ya Trimet Aluminium ku Germany kwachedwa. Kukhazikika kwamagetsi apanyumba ku Yunnan kwakhala kowopsa.

Ⅴ. Chiyembekezo chamtsogolo: Masewera apawiri owonjezera ndi kusintha

1. Alumina: Kutayika koyendetsedwa ndi kutayika, kuyang'ana kwambiri pakuchepetsa kupanga kocheperako

Mtengo ukapitilira kukhala pansi pa 3000 yuan/ton, kuchuluka kochepetsa kupanga mgawo lachiwiri kumatha kufika matani 2 miliyoni pachaka, koma kutulutsa kwatsopano kwa Indonesia kutha kuthetseratu kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono.
Njira nsonga: Tsekani ndalama zopangira nthawi yayitali pamitengo yokwera ndikulabadira China Aluminium Corporation (601600. SH), yomwe ili ndi migodi yakeyake.

2. Aluminiyamu ya Electrolytic: mwayi wamapangidwe pansi pa zotsika mtengo ndi zopindula za ndondomeko

Kuwonjezeka kwapachaka kwa kufunikira kwa mphamvu zatsopano (magalimoto a photovoltaic + magetsi atsopano) ndi 800000 mpaka matani 1 miliyoni, kuthetsa kuchepa kwa minda yachikhalidwe. Malo amtengo wa aluminiyumu akuyembekezeka kukhalabe ndi 19500 mpaka 21500 yuan/ton.