Pa Meyi 27, 2025, China Securities Regulatory Commission idavomereza mwalamulo kulembetsa kwazitsulo zotayidwatsogolo ndi zosankha pa Shanghai Futures Exchange, zomwe zimadziwika kuti ndizoyamba zam'tsogolo padziko lonse lapansi zokhala ndi aluminiyamu yobwezerezedwanso ngati maziko ake kuti alowe mumsika waku China. Muyesowu sudzangosinthanso mitengo yamitengo yamakampani a aluminiyamu, komanso utha kukhala chida chofunikira kwambiri chandalama cholimbikitsa kusintha kwa kaboni wapadziko lonse lapansi wa aluminiyamu.
Kukhudzidwa kwakukulu pamakampani opanga aluminiyamu
Kupambana mu Standardization of Recycled Aluminium Industry
Monga wopanga wamkulu padziko lonse lapansi komanso ogula zotayira zotayidwa (zopanga matani 6.2 miliyoni ndikugwiritsa ntchito matani 6.73 miliyoni mu 2024), makampani aku China opangidwanso ndi aluminiyamu akhala akukumana ndi vuto la chisokonezo chamitengo. Cheng Huawei, manejala wa Ofesi Secretariat wa Guangdong Hongjin Chatsopano Zida Gulu, ananena kuti makasitomala kunsi kwa mtsinje amafuna amphamvu malamulo zokhoma mitengo, koma chifukwa cha kusowa zobwezerezedwanso zotayidwa tsogolo mitundu zotayidwa, mabizinezi akhoza kudalira m'tsogolo pulayimale zotayidwa kapena patsogolo malamulo loko lokhoma mitengo, kuchititsa ngozi kupatuka mitengo. Kukhazikitsidwa kwa tsogolo la aluminiyumu aloyi kudzadzaza mwachindunji kusiyana kumeneku, kukwaniritsa mgwirizano wamtengo wapatali pakati pa zotayidwanso zowonjezeredwa ndi aluminiyamu yoyamba, ndikulimbikitsa ndondomeko yoyendetsera makampani.
Zatsopano mu Zida Zoyang'anira Zowopsa
Mndandanda wa zida zam'tsogolo ndi zosankha zimapereka njira zatsopano zamabizinesi amtundu wa aluminiyamu kuti achepetse kusinthasintha kwamitengo. Kutengera mabizinesi a aluminiyamu obwezerezedwanso monga mwachitsanzo, kuchuluka kwa zotayidwa muzinthu zopangira zopangira kumaposa 70%, ndipo kusinthasintha kwamitengo yazitsulo zotayidwa nthawi zonse kumakhala kokwera kuposa kwa aluminiyumu ya electrolytic. Kupyolera mu msika wamtsogolo, makampani amatha kukwaniritsa:
Hedging: Tsekani mtengo wogula zinthu zopangira zinthu komanso mitengo yogulitsa zinthu kuti mupewe ngozi yakusintha kwamitengo yachitsulo.
Kasamalidwe ka zinthu: Kugwiritsa ntchito malisiti am'malo osungiramo zinthu zam'tsogolo kuti muchepetse kupsinjika kwazinthu zanthawi yanthawi ndikukulitsa njira zogulitsira.
Kupititsa patsogolo ndalama: Kugwiritsa ntchito malisiti osungiramo zinthu zam'tsogolo ngati chikole kuti mupeze ndalama zotsika mtengo komanso kukhathamiritsa chain chain.
Low carbon transformation accelerator
Kutayira zotayidwa zotayidwa makamaka zimagwiritsa ntchito zotayidwa zotayidwa ngati zopangira, ndipo kupanga tani 1 ya zotayidwa zotayidwa akhoza kuchepetsa mpweya mpweya ndi oposa 95%, amene ali njira yaikulu ya otsika mpweya kusintha makampani aluminiyamu padziko lonse. Wang Jian, Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti wa China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, adatsindika kuti zida zam'tsogolo zidzatsogolera likulu kuti lisonkhane m'makampani obiriwira a aluminiyamu, ndikufulumizitsa kusintha kwamakampani otsika mpweya kudzera pamakina otumizira "mtengo wogawika zida zopangira mafakitale".
Kukonzanso kwa Futures Market Pattern
1. Nkhondo yamphamvu yamitengo
Wang Rong, wothandizira wotsogolera wa Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, akulosera kuti mndandanda wa zam'tsogolo za aluminiyamu zidzatsutsa kulamulira kwamitengo ya London Metal Exchange (LME) pamitengo ya aluminiyamu.
Chifukwa chake ndi chakuti:
Kupanga kwa aluminiyamu kobwezerezedwanso ku China kumapangitsa 57% yapadziko lonse lapansi, ndipo zinthu zam'tsogolo zimawonetsa kufunikira kwa msika waku Asia.
Upangiri pakupanga kwazinthu zobweretsera: Njira yobweretsera yapawiri ya "zitsulo zobwezerezedwanso za aluminiyamu + zitsulo zotayidwa za aluminiyamu" m'nthawi yapitayi ikugwirizana kwambiri ndi zosowa zenizeni zamabizinesi aku Asia.
Thandizo logawanitsa ndalama: Pansi pa zolinga zaku China za "dual carbon", zobiriwira za aluminiyamu zobiriwira zidzasangalala ndi misonkho, kukulitsa mphamvu zamitengo yamtsogolo.
2. Kusintha kwa kamangidwe ka ophunzira
Zikuyembekezeka kuti msika wamtsogolo uwonetsa magulu atatu omwe akutenga nawo mbali:
Mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono: osungunula aluminiyamu, mabizinesi opangira ma aluminiyamu, opanga zida zamagalimoto, ndi zina zambiri, omwe akuyembekezeka kupitilira 60%.
Mabungwe opangira ndalama: CTA ndalama, commodity hedge funds, kugwiritsa ntchito kusinthasintha kwamitengo kuti abweretse phindu.
Ogulitsa m'malire: Ndi msika wamtsogolo waku China, makampani aku Southeast Asia, Middle East, ndi madera ena omwe amadya aluminiyamu yobwezerezedwanso atenga nawo gawo pazokambirana.
Ntchito yowonjezereka yopeza mitengo
Msika wapano wamakasitomalazitsulo za aluminiyamuilibe mitengo yogwirizana, kusiyana kwamitengo yachigawo nthawi zambiri kumafika 500 yuan/ton. Msika wamtsogolo ukatha kulembedwa, kuwonekera kwamitengo kudzawongoleredwa kwambiri kudzera munjira zapakati komanso zoperekera. Kutengera zomwe zachitika pamndandanda wamtsogolo wa rebar, tikuyembekezeka kuti mitengo yam'tsogolo ikhala chiyerekezo chamitengo yopitilira 80% ya malonda a aluminiyamu obwezerezedwanso mdziko muno mkati mwa zaka zitatu.
Kufunika kwa Strategic ndi chidziwitso chamakampani
Paradigm yatsopano yotumikira chuma chenicheni
Monga tafotokozera m'magazini yapitayi, tsogolo la aluminium alloy aloy adzatsatira malo a "kutumikira chitukuko chobiriwira" ndikukakamiza kukweza mafakitale pokhazikitsa miyezo yokhwima ya zinthu zobweretsera (monga zonyansa ndi makina). Izi zikugwirizana ndi zofunikira za carbon footprint ya European Union's Carbon Border Tax (CBAM) pazinthu zotumizidwa kunja kwa aluminiyamu, kuthandiza makampani a aluminiyamu aku China kupititsa patsogolo mpikisano wawo wapadziko lonse.
Kukonzanso Malo a Msika Wa Aluminium Padziko Lonse
Kukula kwa makampani a aluminiyamu obwezeretsedwanso ku China kukulembanso mapu amtundu wa aluminiyumu wapadziko lonse lapansi komanso zofunikira. Mu 2024, gawo la zopangira zotayidwanso ku China kupita ku aluminiyamu yoyamba yafika 22%, pomwe avareji yapadziko lonse lapansi ndi 15% yokha. Kusintha kwa zida zam'tsogolo kumathandizira izi, ndipo zikuyembekezeredwa kuti pofika chaka cha 2030, kuchuluka kwa zotayidwanso ku China kupitilira 35%, ndikufinyanso malo amsika akunja akunja a carbon aluminiyamu.
Chivumbulutso cha Derivative Innovation
Kukhazikitsidwa kwa tsogolo la aluminiyamu alloy kwapereka chitsanzo cha malonda amtsogolo amitundu ina yazitsulo zobwezerezedwanso, monga mkuwa wokonzedwanso ndi zinki. Mfundo yaikulu ndikuphatikizira chuma cha "migodi ya m'tawuni" mu ndondomeko ya mitengo yamtengo wapatali ndikulimbikitsa chitukuko cha chuma chozungulira pogwiritsa ntchito luso lazachuma.
Ponseponse, mndandanda wa tsogolo la aluminiyumu aloyi ndi zosankha sizongowonjezera zatsopano ku msika waku China kuti uthandizire chuma chenicheni, komanso njira yayikulu yazachuma pakusintha kwapadziko lonse lapansi kwa aluminiyamu. Pomanga malo osungiramo katundu komanso kukonza njira zosinthira malire, mitundu iyi ikuyembekezeka kukhala malo otchuka kwambiri amitengo yazitsulo zosakhala ndi chitsulo mdera la nthawi yaku Asia, ndikukonzanso malingaliro ogawa amakampani apadziko lonse lapansi a aluminiyamu.
Nthawi yotumiza: May-29-2025